Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.011819 0.013363 0.015033 0.016975 0.019171 0.021578 0.024419
2025-11-02 0.009292 0.011399 0.013871 0.016987 0.020814 0.025365 0.031195
2025-11-09 0.007735 0.010033 0.012884 0.016682 0.021619 0.027827 0.036247
2025-11-16 0.006835 0.009281 0.012455 0.016882 0.022909 0.030847 0.042128
2025-11-23 0.006028 0.008515 0.011872 0.016743 0.023646 0.033108 0.047114
2025-11-30 0.005554 0.008129 0.011729 0.017140 0.025093 0.036393 0.053745
2025-12-07 0.004895 0.007398 0.011011 0.016620 0.025138 0.037641 0.057493
2025-12-14 0.004411 0.006867 0.010519 0.016360 0.025504 0.039340 0.061998
2025-12-21 0.003945 0.006315 0.009937 0.015891 0.025483 0.040412 0.065578
2025-12-28 0.003772 0.006199 0.010007 0.016436 0.027077 0.044095 0.073588
2026-01-04 0.003567 0.006011 0.009941 0.016746 0.028302 0.047263 0.080998
2026-01-11 0.003399 0.005865 0.009927 0.017130 0.029668 0.050748 0.089211
2026-01-18 0.003148 0.005562 0.009632 0.017024 0.030211 0.052930 0.095434
2026-01-25 0.002939 0.005314 0.009411 0.017027 0.030942 0.055494 0.102565
2026-02-01 0.002702 0.004995 0.009038 0.016722 0.031085 0.057011 0.107895
2026-02-08 0.002565 0.004844 0.008949 0.016923 0.032161 0.060285 0.116760
2026-02-15 0.002392 0.004612 0.008692 0.016783 0.032580 0.062363 0.123499
2026-02-22 0.002306 0.004536 0.008717 0.017181 0.034056 0.066543 0.134686
2026-03-01 0.002112 0.004234 0.008290 0.016659 0.033682 0.067109 0.138677
2026-03-08 0.001966 0.004016 0.008007 0.016399 0.033801 0.068642 0.144749
2026-03-15 0.001810 0.003763 0.007636 0.015929 0.033451 0.069199 0.148814
2026-03-22 0.001774 0.003755 0.007754 0.016475 0.035254 0.074295 0.162961
2026-03-29 0.001715 0.003694 0.007760 0.016786 0.036579 0.078491 0.175497